疫情加速了石油总需求的结构性变化，降低了石油行业开发成本更高的石油储备进行再投资的需求，以支持未来3至5年的生产水平和增长。
穆迪投资者服务公司已将其对油价的中期预测从每桶50-70美元下调至每桶45-65美元。
“较低的价格区间反映了我们的观点，即油价将保持高度波动，周期将超出区间的上限或下限。石油生产国欧佩克集团试图控制供应的努力，也会不时导致油价波动。”穆迪表示，石油需求的复苏将比总体GDP增长更为缓和。
国际能源署估计，到2020年年底，全球石油需求将恢复到危机前水平的6%左右。
政府采取的封锁措施限制了国内和国际航空旅行等石油密集型活动，这些活动的恢复速度将慢于总体GDP。全球石油和燃料的高库存将进一步放缓石油需求和价格的复苏步伐。
为应对需求的异常下降，全球石油行业已动员起来实施大规模减产——与2019年12月相比减少了约10%。石油生产国集团已同意从2020年5月开始，将石油日产量在2020年2月的基础上削减约700万桶，为期两年。
该协议前提是，美国、加拿大、巴西和挪威的私营企业将进一步减产370万桶/天，这些企业不属于欧佩克成员国。鉴于有限的储存量和低油价在短期内主导着油价，预计2020年欧佩克成员国将在平衡现货市场方面展开强有力的合作。
穆迪表示，为了加快再平衡，沙特宣布从2020年6月起再减产100万桶/天，其他几个欧佩克成员国也提高了最初的减产承诺。
摘译自 Trade Arabia
原文如下：
Medium term oil prices trend lower
The coronavirus pandemic is hastening a structural change in aggregate demand for oil, reducing the oil industry's need to develop higher-cost reserves for reinvestment to support production levels and growth in the next three to five years.
Moody’s Investors Service has reduced its medium-term oil price assumptions to $45-$65/barrel (bbl), down from $50-$70/bbl.
“The lower price range reflects our view that oil prices will remain highly volatile, with periods outside the top or bottom ends of the range. Geopolitical issues or attempts to manage supply by the Opecplus group of oil-producing nations will also lead to price fluctuations from time to time.
Recovery in oil demand will be more subdued than overall GDP growth, Moody’s said.
Assuming a gradual economic recovery starting in the second half of 2020, the International Energy Association (IEA) estimates that by late 2020, world oil demand will return to levels some 6.5 (mbpd), or 6%, below pre-crisis levels.
The coronavirus lockdowns have effectively set up a real-time experiment over the digitisation of services, possibly bringing permanent changes in the nature of work in service industries, while reducing both business travel and commuting.
Government measures to reduce the spread of the coronavirus have restricted oil-intensive activities such as domestic and international air travel, which will recover more slowly than overall GDP. High inventories of both oil and fuels globally will further slow the pace of recovery in oil demand and prices.
The coronavirus lockdowns have effectively set up a real-time experiment over the digitisation of services, possibly bringing permanent changes in the nature of work in service industries, while reducing both business travel and commuting.
In response to the exceptional decline in demand, the global oil industry has mobilised to implement significant production cuts—about 10% from December 2019 levels. The Opec-plus group of oil-producing nations has agreed to cut oil production for two years by about 7.0 mbpd from February 2020 levels, starting in May 2020.
The agreement assumes further production cuts of 3.7 mbpd from private companies in the US, Canada, Brazil and Norway, which are not part of the Opec-plus group. With limited storage and low oil prices dominating short-term oil prices, we would expect strong cooperation from pec-plus members in balancing the physical market in 2020.
To accelerate the rebalancing, Saudi Arabia announced an additional 1 mbpd production cut beginning in June 2020, and several other members of Opec are raising their initial commitments to cut production, said Moody’s.
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